PLAER

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Praise to nonsense 2.

3. Yes nonsenses are well


Translucent, colours of ripe grapes the house computer? For what?


To land dozen people on it is artificial the created desert island to see, who from them will sustain intense rivalry and becomes «last hero»? Really millions will wish to watch their struggle on the TV? Be such cannot.


To give $3,75 for a coffee cup? It is frivolous.


People like novelties and something especial. Why? Because it forces them to feel more progressive, brings novelty aspects in their lives. One only that you have offered something revolutionary that to you did not manage to make anybody, allows to make a huge step forward.


Be not afraid to do nonsense.


4. Resist to the power


Let's collect in one room eight persons and we will look, what will occur? Command will be incurred by alpha leaders.


In summary ideas introduced in your company are not result of synthesis of offers of all employees, and proceed from the alpha leaders existing in any to a cell of creations, which "mission" - capture and power deduction.


Whether but "alphas" possess creative or strategic thinking? By no means unessentially. They are created for the power. In the majority they only look the most powerful. As practice, the "more long" growth the graduate of business school, the above its initial salary shows.


If you belong to "Alpha" "family", study to show restraint.


Listening to "power" words, you are anyhow focused on the past, that has once allowed to become successful. But it is far not all successful "medicines" in the past save the validity and today. So, buyers can be extremely dissatisfied. If you have followed the tastes of the power, you risk only to repeat the last scenario and to lose the clients.


Call in question the power (silently).


5. Not too trust experts


There is one remarkable joke concerning qualification of economists: «Experts in the field of economy have successfully predicted thirteen of last six recessions».


Meteorologists can assure you that the probability of a rain is insignificant, while you, having looked out of a window, substitute a head under water streams.


Experts of film studio Universal predicted also a failure of "Star wars».


What does the person by the expert? Possession a considerable quantity of the information and solid experience. But in what limits? Very often we see two experts taking opposite positions almost on any question, and each of them is armed by the necessary information in support of own words.


Expert George Soros, one of the richest people in the world and the most known investor, have been so assured of crash of global capitalism that has written the book about the future accident. In two years after its issue the author was convinced, that capitalism prospers, and has declared in interview to the newspaper «New York Times», that he was mistaken.


Be careful of councils of experts. Too often experts estimate the given situation, leaning on the previous experience. But every time when we try to apply lessons which we have taken from our experience, to the decision of the problem which have risen today, apparently, in accuracy repeating once already arising, leaves nothing.


Call in question statements of experts.


6. Be careful of "science"


Very often we hear that «According to results of researches...»


Researches are not a science as that, and the majority of data in them in general about what do not speak. Researches advise more likely, offer a support on logic.


We overestimate possibilities of researches, especially if their results are expressed in concrete figures. «The majority of people prefer to have round-the-clock access to the Internet», - for us sounds unpersuasively enough. «Five of six interrogated prefer to have round-the-clock access to the Network», - it is much better. «83,3 % of respondents would like to have round-the-clock access to the Internet», - sounds for us as the statement for the come true scientific fact, as the guide to action though this statement identically previous and represents interpretation of the same research.



Do not trust researches. They allow to understand, what exactly is pleasant to consumers, only in rare instances.


7. Do not trust experience


Long years doctor Stephen Dzhej Gould (Stephen Jay Gould) carefully stored darlings to heart of memoirs on how they with the father sat on steps of the well-known tennis centre in Forest to Hilla, behind line of Manhattan in Queens. Once he walked on the old quarter and has casually seen these steps.


They conducted to a dilapidated door with the tablet «Transportations and Muller's warehousing».


We remember things which never occurred. As the proof we refer often to events which proceeded at all how we remember them.


In the book «The Seven Sins of Memory» («Seven sins of memory») Daniel Schacter on set of examples shows, how much badly we remember events occurring to us. To take at least last researches when DNA analysis has revealed, that in 90 % of cases the identification witnesses of criminals was erroneous. And it in spite of the fact that witnesses «saw all own eyes», that we are inclined to regard as the incontestable proof.


We read about a tulip fever in the Netherlands when some Dutches spread the whole conditions for the one and only bulb. To you does not come to mind a parallel with a modern securities market as the action to remind there were very strongly tulips?


And then we get acquainted with job «Famous First Bubbles» («the First well-known" a bubble "») Peter Garbera (Peter Garbef) and we learn, that «obsession tulips» was completely not such what we represented it to ourselves many years. Sudden falling of the prices for bulbs of tulips has not rendered negative influence on economy. Yes, a fantastic sum paid for them, but them are ready to give and today. One buyer who has not named has paid recently for acquisition of one bulb of $700.000. Such phenomena as a tulip fever, an orchid a fever and to it similar, were, are and will be


Our experience, like our representations about gamble on tulips, to a visual identification and memoirs about Forest to Hilla, sometimes at all is not experience. These are inventions about which we read or wrote to which we concern as the come true events


Do not trust neither to the experience, nor memory.

Continuation in a following post.

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